Earnings call transcript: Havas Q1 2026 misses revenue forecast amid FX headwinds

Havas reported its Q1 2026 earnings with net revenue reaching EUR 638 million, falling short of the EUR 693 million forecast due to significant foreign exchange headwinds. Despite the revenue miss, the company maintained its full-year guidance, emphasizing strong organic growth in North America and strategic AI integration. The stock price remained stable at $19.17, trading near its 52-week high and representing 95% of its peak. With a market capitalization of $1.87 billion and a P/E ratio of just 8.5, InvestingPro data suggests the stock is significantly undervalued relative to its Fair Value, placing it among companies on the Most Undervalued list.

Key Takeaways

• Havas’s Q1 2026 revenue of EUR 638 million missed the forecast by EUR 55 million.
• North America showed robust organic growth of 7.4%.
• Significant foreign exchange headwinds impacted financial results.
• Strategic AI integration and acquisitions are central to future growth.
• The stock price remained stable, indicating a neutral market reaction.

Company Performance

Havas experienced a challenging Q1 2026, with revenue impacted by a 5.8% foreign exchange headwind. The company achieved 2.5% organic growth, aligning with its full-year guidance. North America led growth with a 7.4% increase, driven by new business wins in creative and media services. However, Asia Pacific and Latin America faced organic declines, attributed to phasing impacts.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: EUR 638 million, down from the forecast of EUR 693 million.
• Organic Growth: 2.5%, aligning with the full-year 2%-3% guidance.
• Foreign Exchange Impact: -5.8%, with expectations to moderate throughout the year.

Outlook & Guidance

Havas confirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting 2%-3% organic growth and an EBIT ratio of 13.2%-13.5%. The company expects foreign exchange headwinds to moderate, with a full-year impact of -2% to -3%. Havas plans to continue its strategic acquisitions, targeting 5-10 deals generating EUR 40-50 million in additional revenue. According to InvestingPro Tips, the company is trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of 0.85. Investors seeking deeper insights can access Havas’s comprehensive Pro Research Report, one of 1,400+ available on InvestingPro, which transforms complex Wall Street data into clear, actionable intelligence. The platform offers 6 additional ProTips for Havas, along with advanced metrics and Fair Value analysis.

Executive Commentary

Management emphasized the company’s "solid fundamentals and agility" in navigating macroeconomic challenges. The integration of AI capabilities is seen as a core operational strategy, enhancing productivity and service quality. Executives remain confident in achieving full-year guidance despite the Q1 revenue miss.

Risks and Challenges

• Foreign Exchange Volatility: Continued currency fluctuations could impact revenue.
• Regional Performance: Organic declines in Asia Pacific and Latin America pose challenges.
• Economic Uncertainty: Broader macroeconomic conditions could affect client budgets and spending.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of foreign exchange on future quarters and the potential for larger transformational acquisitions. Management reiterated confidence in moderating FX impacts and expressed openness to strategic M&A opportunities that align with the company’s integrated model.

Full transcript - Havas NV (HAV2) Q1 2026:

Conference Moderator, Conference Moderator: Hello everyone, and welcome to the Havas Q1 2026 Revenue Conference Call. The speaker today is François Laroze, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. Please note this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the presentation. This can be done by pressing hashtag five on your telephone keypad to register your participation at any time. Please note that three questions and one follow-up question are allowed for each analyst. I will now hand you over to your host, François Laroze, to begin the conference. Thank you.

Xavier Mayer, Head of Investor Relations, Havas: Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for this Havas Q1 2026 Revenue Conference Call. I am Xavier Mayer, our Head of Investor Relations. I try to keep my presentation concise to leave you sufficient time for your questioning at the end. Please refer to the appendices for the detailed figures. I will let you read the disclaimer later. We now jump to the Q1 performance. In the first quarter of 2026, Havas recorded net revenue of EUR 638 million. This is an organic growth of 2.5% compared with the same period last year. It’s in the midpoint of our 2026 guidance. Scope effect contributed for 1.7%, reflecting the impact of our recent M&A, also in line with the scope figures we recorded in the past. Foreign exchange has had a negative impact of 5.8%, mainly driven by the U.S. dollar and British pounds.

This should be the worst quarter of the year in terms of negative FX impact. Now if we look at the performance per region, you will see that North America once again delivered a very strong quarter at 7.4%, mainly driven by the continued momentum in creative and media and the ramp-up of the budget won over the course of last year. Europe recorded 1.1% of organic growth, with France delivering a solid performance, supported notably by media, while the U.K. remained broadly stable. Asia Pacific declined by 6.2%, reflecting a phasing impact for this quarter, with China negative and India strongly positive. Nevertheless, we still expect a positive organic growth for the full year in this region. Latin America was broadly stable after two very strong performance last year.

The organic is -0.6%. Again, we expect a positive organic growth for the full year 2026 and consider this performance as a phasing impact. If we move now to the highlights, a few words to tell you that beyond the figures, the key message of the quarter is the continued solidity of our business momentum. We record these numerous mid-size budget wins and retention. These wins, again, illustrate the strength of our integrated model and our ability to combine retentions in business and new business. A few words now on our AI and capabilities, which increasingly sit at the core of our operating model. In the first quarter, we continued the Group’s deployment of AI, notably through the rollout of AVA, our secure LLM portal, and Vermeer, which supports scalable and responsible content creation.

All employees across the Group are being trained in the use of AI, supported by the leading external experts. Now, a few words on Middle East exposure. Havas obviously has a limited exposure to the region, which represent 1.9% of the net revenue of the Group, so no material impact on the Group’s financial statements. We nevertheless continue to monitor the situation. This region remains a mid- to long-term growth opportunity, supported by ongoing expansion of our creative powerhouses. Now let’s move to M&A. During this first quarter, we completed four acquisitions. Acento in Spain with 50 people that will join the H/Advisors network. Ctrl Digital in Sweden, that reinforce the key network. Styleheads in Germany, almost 100 employees that will join and reinforce the Havas Play offering.

Eyesight, which is a agency part of organization of fashion shows in France that will reinforce the luxury vertical of BETC called Maison BETC. All these operations are majority stakes as usual that will strengthen our creative media, data, and advisory capabilities. They are accretive in terms of growth and profitability and are fully aligned with our strategic priority. We still remain confident to close five to 10 acquisitions per year this year again, in line with what we have communicated, generating a revenue from EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million additional in the year 2026. Now, a few words on the guidance. Looking ahead, and despite the uncertain macro environment, we consider we enter the coming quarters with solid fundamentals and agility. We therefore can confirm our full year 2026 guidance, both on organic growth, profitability, and EBIT.

Guidance 2026 is unchanged between 2% and 3% for the organic growth, 13.2%-13.5% for the EBIT ratio, and the payout ratio still around 40%. Same for the midterm guidance that is also confirmed, 14%-15% for the adjusted EBIT margin and 40% for the EBIT ratio. This concludes my overview of the first call of this year, and we now remain at your disposal to answer any question you may raise. Thank you for your attention.

Conference Moderator, Conference Moderator: Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please dial #5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial #6 on your telephone keypad. Note that three questions and one follow-up question are allowed for each analyst. The next question comes from Annick Maas from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Annick Maas, Analyst, Bernstein: Good evening. I have a couple of questions. The first one is on the Middle East. Could you please tell us what would your organic revenue growth have been for the group, I guess, if the Middle East March effect hasn’t really been there? Maybe if you could give a bit more detail on how much March decline it is. Is 30% decline in March fair to assume? My second one is just going back on M&A. You’ve done a few bolt-ons, but you’ve mentioned at your last call that you have a bit of capacity to go beyond the bolt-ons, and I guess particularly Omnicom has quite a few interesting assets to sell, and they are sellers, so that’s always a good position to be in for you guys. Can you just give a little bit more thoughts on what you’ve been thinking on more transformational M&A?

Thank you.

Xavier Mayer, Head of Investor Relations, Havas: Thank you, Annick, for these questions. First of all, the Middle East. The Middle East impact has been very little during this first quarter. Let’s remind that the crisis didn’t start at the beginning of the year. Obviously, the performance of March is not at the level of the previous two months. During this first quarter, the impact has been almost zero on the UAE, on Dubai, and stronger on Saudi Arabia and Israel. We are waiting for the performance of April to know exactly what the trend will be. It has really not been material during this first quarter. We will come back after the completion of the months of April to see the impact, but it’s only 1.9% of our revenues. On M&A, yes, we have achieved this bolt-on.

We have always told that we were ready to look at bigger fishes, and we know maybe there will some agency to sell by Omnicom. Also, we saw some rumors on WPP businesses. We will obviously look at all of these, but today we are very happy with our bolt-on strategy. We remain open to any bigger deal, but at the time, we have not been working in any of these deal into details. We remain open. We know we can afford this type of deal, but we need to ensure that it fits with our strategy, it fits with our ambition to have a very integrated model. We will contemplate any opportunity.

Annick Maas, Analyst, Bernstein: Okay. Thank you.

Conference Moderator, Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Julien Roch from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Julien Roch, Analyst, Barclays: My first question is on FX. If rates stay the same for the rest of the year, what will be the FX drag for the full year? Second question is, can you give us some indications on net interest, restructuring, and tax rates for the full year? Lastly, on the buyback, since starting, you bought back 45,000 shares a week, but the last six weeks, only 13,000. If you stay at that lower level, you won’t buy back EUR 50 million by the AGM. Will you accelerate the buyback again until the AGM, or will you only buy back, like, EUR 35 million? At the next AGM, would it make sense to announce another buyback? Merci.

Xavier Mayer, Head of Investor Relations, Havas: Let’s do your second question first. On the FX, you saw this 5.8% negative impact for the first quarter. Let’s remind that during the first quarter 2025, it was a moment where the dollar was still quite high. We anticipate still the type of impact for the full year in the range between 2% and 3% negative impact. If the dollar remains where it is today in the range of 1.16-1.18, these quarters, as I said earlier, will clearly be the stronger of the year 2026. On the question two, we do not disclose the figures for the full years in terms of financial. Sorry for that, Julien. On the buyback, yes, you’re right. The level of buyback has been reduced during the past weeks, but we remain very agile and we could increase it in the coming weeks.

We will decide with the Board of Directors what to do. We keep on buying back shares, and the pace of it will depend on the decision in the coming weeks. We remain very agile and could adapt our policy depending on the decision we make in the coming weeks and months.

Julien Roch, Analyst, Barclays: Merci.

Conference Moderator, Conference Moderator: The next question comes from Laura Metayer from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Laura Metayer, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Hi, François and Delphine. Two questions, please. The first one is on the growth difference between Europe and North America. I was just wondering how we should think about it. Does it come from different market dynamics, different business wins, or dynamics with growth with existing clients? If you can help us understand a little bit, that would be super helpful. Second question is on the shareholding structure. I saw that the Compagnie de l’Étoile des Mers increased their shareholding. Is there anything you can say about the drivers behind that decision? Thank you very much.

Xavier Mayer, Head of Investor Relations, Havas: Thank you, Laura. On the growth, yes, what we can point out is a very good dynamic in the U.S. It’s coming from the nice new business we have finalized during the second half of 2025. We referred to that during previous calls. I would say mid-size client, if you refer to Centene, SCI or The Travel Corporation, which have been won in an integrated model including creative and media, and which really strongly contributed to the performance of this good start of the year 2025. Same for 2026, sorry. The same for media assignments, which have been won late 2025. In Europe, it’s not a real trend. We have some positive performance in Havas Paris, less strong in other agencies. What’s really important to remind that, U.S. has been very dynamic, thanks to the new business of the previous months. On the shareholding structure, you’re right.

There’s been announcement of a threshold crossed above 50% for Bolloré Participations through the Compagnie de l’Étoile des Mers, which is including the direct stake of Étoile des Mers plus the one of Bolloré. We have no real comment to do from Havas, just to confirm that this has been announced as a confirmation of the good performance of Havas and the positive feeling of the shareholder in Havas’ future. They consider that investing in Havas is a good opportunity, and so we are very pleased with this move that confirmed the trust of the Bolloré shareholder in Havas’ performance.

Laura Metayer, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: That’s helpful. Thank you.

Conference Moderator, Conference Moderator: As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. The next question comes from Conor O’Shea from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Conor O’Shea, Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux: Yes, good evening, François. Thanks for taking my questions. First question, just on early look at Q2, maybe you don’t have full visibility on April yet, but any changes there that you’re seeing that will give you an early indication whether Q2 will be faster or slower or similar to Q1 organic growth at this stage? Secondly, if you could give us a little bit more detail at a Group level on growth by activity, I think you made reference to Media and Creative, but if you can just give a little bit more detail at the Group level of the organic growth and particularly the healthcare activity at a Group level in Q1, that would be very helpful. Last question, just on M&A, I think you mentioned EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million M&A boost for the full year from the deals that have already been announced.

Can you just give us an indication of the rough distribution by region that would benefit reported revenues in the following quarters for this M&A effect? Thank you.

Xavier Mayer, Head of Investor Relations, Havas: First question concerning the Q2, it’s obviously too early to give you any indication. We are working with all the Financial Director to ensure the trend for the full year, not quarter by quarter. Today, as I said earlier, even if we are always very prudent looking at the macro environment, we consider that there is no negative signal that would prevent us from being in our guidance. Quarter by quarter, we do not disclose in advance what the performance could be. In terms of performance by vertical, I refer to Media and Creative and all the verticals of Media, Creative, and Health that contributed to the performance of the quarter, as was right in line with the others business unit. They all contributed to this performance, roughly in the same kind of trend. On M&A, it will be on all regions.

We have some deals to finalize in the U.S. to announce, but mainly in Europe. As we did last year, it will be spread in all the regions, including Europe, as we did during the first quarter, but also some in the U.S. and in Asia. It will be well spread.

Conor O’Shea, Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux: Okay. Many thanks. Thank you.

Conference Moderator, Conference Moderator: Last reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial hashtag five on your telephone keypad now. We will wait a few seconds to give you a final opportunity to ask your question. The next question comes from Julien Roch from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Julien Roch, Analyst, Barclays: Yeah. On the Middle East, how much was it down in March? Would it be possible to break down the 2.5% organic in Q1 between net new business contribution and existing clients, something that WPP and Publicis do every quarter? Thank you.

Xavier Mayer, Head of Investor Relations, Havas: Middle East, the performance of March will be in the range of -10 something. If we take all three main markets, which are Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E., that’s roughly, it’s once again too early to project that on the future, the market was in this range. On the organic, we do not disclose any new biz. We already refer to this as we consider it’s not really easy for you and for us to spread the organic growth between new biz, retention, and all type of revenue. we do not disclose the 2.5% by new biz and retention and net wins. Sorry, Julien.

Julien Roch, Analyst, Barclays: Merci.

Conference Moderator, Conference Moderator: There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speaker for any closing remarks.

Xavier Mayer, Head of Investor Relations, Havas: Thank you for your attention, and we remain with Delphine at your full disposal in the coming hours and days if you had any further questions to raise. Thank you and good evening to everyone.

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